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In Big Bear, 2008 Was Not Great

But hey, who is living in the past, right?

In Big Bear, 2008 will go down as the slowest year for sales (# of properties sold) in more than 20+ years. It could be the slowest year ever but I don’t have the data to prove it.

It is what it is.

The fact is that we are in this position and have to go through the “reckoning” process. Some call it karma, ying & yang, or the boomerang of life, it is the natural way to correctly a wrong.

Like Newton’s law of reciprocal actions, “To every action there is always opposed an equal reaction.” The real estate craziness of 2001 to 2006 was characterized by 15-25% price appreciation per year, loose lending standards with everyone, regardless of their job, able to qualify for a loan, low amounts of inventory, overbidding, & unrealistic sellers.

The opposite & equal reaction of the past couple years was bound to happen. The equally crazy real estate market of 2007-2008 is identified by 10-20% price drops per year, tightening of lending criteria whereby “qualified” buyers are having a hard time getting a loan, an over abundance of inventory, REO, bank owned & short sale properties, low ball offers, and unrealistic buyers.

2009 will be more of the same.  Just because tomorrow is Jan. 1, we still have the same issues.

It is what it is.

All we can do is learn from the past and try to make better decisions in the future.  Isn’t that what life is about?

I expect to see prices continue to drop, most likely another 5-15% max and then a leveling off.  Not until the bank owned properties stop coming on the market, or at least slow down quite a bit, will we see a leveling off of prices. They are driving the market.

Once the median & average sales price in Big Bear approaches the 2002/03 levels (around $180,000 median, and $230,000 average), I think we will start to see a leveling off and the beginning of a more “normal” market.  That should happen within the next two years.

Hey, just my opinion.

It is what it is.

It is not what happens to you that determines your future—it is how you respond and what you do about it. –Jim Rohn

Happy New Years to everyone and here’s to a healthy & prosperous 2009!

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