There’s been a lot of talk recently about the real estate market in Big Bear hitting the bottom.
Rightfully so, with sales up nearly 50% from last year, interest rates under 5%, the number of properties on the market down 25%, and prices down 25% to 50% from their peak, it is natural to think we are there are close to it.
I guess it depends on what you call the bottom, number of sales or prices? If it is sales, then yes, we already hit bottom last year. But, prices are still going down, and should continue to do so the next 8 -12 months.
The key stat that I look at is the foreclosure numbers in Big Bear. These are the properties going into default, going to sale, and going back to the bank. As what pointed out a few weeks back, these numbers were at all time highs in Feb. 2009 (I will be looking at Mar. 2009 very soon).
Generally speaking, the more properties going back to the bank, the lower the prices are going to be in the future. While the rate of the price depreciation should level off under 1% per month (it was between 1-3% per month the past couple years), it will still be prevalent.
If you really want to know where we are heading as a real estate market in Big Bear, be sure to keep an eye on the foreclosure numbers.