If you have not already been able to tell, I am a fan of charts and graphs as I think they give you a good visual of how the real estate market in Big Bear is performing. And, it was a quiet day today so I had some time to crunch the residential market stats for Big Bear this year.
First off, home sales in Big Bear for 2009 through October.
Some key takeaways –
- Bank owned properties dominated what was selling in the first quarter of the year, but have since dropped off
- When the total sales dropped, organic sales rose while bank owned sales dropped along a similar pace. Seems to me the market pace is following the bank owned sales more than the organic sales. If you compare the lines of bank owned and the total sales, they are almost identical
- As reported earlier this month, Sept. home sales in 2009 were the highest we’ve seen, not only this year, but over the past 2 years
- Short sales make up a small amount of what has closed escrow
No huge buildup of bank owned properties as nearly all of the bank owned listings that have come on the market have sold.
Year to date, there have been 279 bank owned listings hit the market in Big Bear, and 269 bank owned sales. So, the market seems to be keeping up with the pace of bank owned listings. As I stated here before however, there are 100’s of properties in Big Bear that are in pre-foreclosure (notice of default or notice of sale filed). What happens to these properties over the next 6-12 months will have a lot to do with the future of the real estate market in Big Bear.
As referenced in the top chart, organic sales are making up the majority of what is selling in Big Bear this 2009. By organic sales, I am referring to anything besides bank owned or short sales. YTD, they make 53% of what is selling, followed by bank owned properties at 38%, and short sales at 9%.
But, when compared to what is currently under contract or in escrow, organic sales only make up 42% while bank owned properties are at 19%. Shockingly, short sales make up 39% of what is currently in escrow. This will be interesting to see how many of these actually close or, rather, end up going back to the bank. The more short sales that close, the less properties that go back to the bank – that would be good for the market. But, if you know anything about short sales, a good percentage of them never close escrow.
Lastly, those properties currently for sale. Organic sales should dominate what is selling as they make up a huge percentage, 85%, of what is for sale. Bank owned properties on the other hand, make up only 7% of what is for sale yet 38% of what has sold this year. This is important to keep in mind if you are buying one – you are bound to run into competition from other interested parties as these are the hot ticket. Short sales round it out at 8%, more in line with the amount that is selling.
That’s about enough stats for one day. If you would like to know any other stats that I did not cover, like days on the market, average sales price, median price, list price to sales price ratio, or any others, feel free to leave a comment here and I will see what I can do.
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* Note: The charts above represent single family homes in the Big Bear area, including Big Bear Lake, Big Bear City, Moonridge, Fox Farm, Sugarloaf, Erwin Lake, & Fawnskin. Data courtesy of the Big Bear MLS. These numbers do not include raw land or condos nor does it include homes in the Big Bear MLS that are located out of the Big Bear area.
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