Home sales in Big Bear rose 20% in September 2010 while the median sales price remained relatively the same, up just 1%. The average sales price was up 3% in September.
Big Bear Home Sales
Home sales in September (84) were up when compared to the August sales (70). Year over year however, sales were down 12% from September 2009 (95).
24, or 29%, of the 84 sales were bank owned, the same % as last month. This is the second straight month that bank owned sales have made up a lower than average showing. The monthly average is normally in 40-50% range. Keep tracking this to see if a trend occurs.
7 of the sales, or 8%, were short sales, which is 2% less than last month. After several months of higher percentages a few months back, short sales have falling back to their normal average of under 10% of the total monthly sales.
September was another strong month for organic sellers. 54, or 63%, of the Big Bear home sales in September were organic, or traditional sellers – an increase of 3% from last month. Organic sellers continue to make up over 86% of the available inventory for sale, a pretty large chuck. Compared to the amount that are selling every month, which is close to 60%, there is still an oversupply. Buyers are more attracted to the bank owned and short sale properties as they believe that is where the deals can be found, and most of the time they are right.
If you are a traditional seller, you have got to keep this in mind. A lot of times your competition is not the neighbor down the street, but rather the buyer’s mindset.
Big Bear Home Prices
The median sales price was up from $197,500 in August to $200,000 in September, a 1% increase. This number continues to bounce around between $160,000 and $220,000. Year over year, the median sales price was up 8% from the September 2009 median. Still a lot of volatility out there in the market when it comes to prices – all over the board with no set pattern.
The average sales price for homes sold in September was $286,757, up 3% from the August number of $279,216. This may be attributed to more higher end sales, including 4 Big Bear lakefronts. Year over year, the average sales price was up 20% from the September 2009 average price of $239,625. This was another strong month of year over year increases in the average sales price.
Homes Currently on the Market
I guess my question of whether or not we would see the number of homes for sale in Big Bear cross the 1000 mark has been answered – nope. Inventory peaked in August at just under 900.
Month over month, we saw a 6% decrease (837 vs. 894) in the amount of available properties.
There are still more homes on the market right now than there were last year at this time (837 v. 807).
Take a look at the graph below – last year at this time we saw a leveling effect, very little gain. Compare that to this year and the rise in homes for sale that appears to have peaked in August. Keep tabs on this number as it will affect the market for both buyers and sellers.
Buyers – lack of options, more competition from other buyers.
Sellers – less competition can lead to stronger negotiating position and quicker sales
Big Bear Home Sales – Thru Sept 2010
| Month and Year | # Homes For Sale | Median Asking Price | # Homes Sold | Median Sales Price | Average Sales Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept 2010 | 837 | $268,000 | 84 | $200,000 | $286,757 |
| Aug 2010 | 894 | $275,000 | 70 | $197,500 | $279,216 |
| July 2010 | 860 | $299,000 | 66 | $204,450 | $259,940 |
| June 2010 | 810 | $295,000 | 72 | $182,500 | $249,756 |
| May 2010 | 789 | $299,000 | 58 | $208,750 | $255,294 |
| April 2010 | 681 | $289,900 | 76 | $181,250 | $229,149 |
| Mar 2010 | 633 | $279,900 | 74 | $219,500 | $256,236 |
| Feb 2010 | 617 | $285,000 | 62 | $180,000 | $254,124 |
| Jan 2010 | 624 | $298,750 | 57 | $162,500 | $216,260 |
| Dec 2009 | 661 | $289,900 | 80 | $227,500 | $312,925 |
| Nov 2009 | 709 | $299,900 | 91 | $219,900 | $257,895 |
| Oct 2009 | 765 | $299,900 | 94 | $206,500 | $294,916 |
| Sept 2009 | 807 | $310,000 | 95 | $184,900 | $239,625 |
| Aug 2009 | 864 | $313,000 | 79 | $178,000 | $250,120 |
| July 2009 | 909 | $309,000 | 87 | $225,000 | $280,787 |
| June 2009 | 927 | $310,000 | 79 | $252,000 | $293,661 |
| May 2009 | 902 | $316,000 | 58 | $226,000 | $309,806 |
| April 2009 | 894 | $300,000 | 63 | $205,000 | $243,669 |
| Mar 2009 | 893 | $299,950 | 58 | $177,000 | $287,996 |
| Feb 2009 | 889 | $309,000 | 58 | $215,500 | $293,295 |
| Jan 2009 | 902 | $319,000 | 51 | $220,000 | $272,571 |
| Dec 2008 | 956 | $320,905 | 44 | $242,250 | $348,906 |
| Nov 2008 | 1032 | $325,000 | 50 | $240,287 | $329,953 |
| Oct 2008 | 1078 | $329,000 | 77 | $255,000 | $343,234 |
| Sept 2008 | 1109 | $328,500 | 82 | $224,500 | $266,170 |
Third Quarter Comparisons (7/1 – 9/30)
| Year | # of Homes Sold | Median Sales Price | Average Sales Price | Days on Market | List Price to Sales Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 220 | $200,000 | $276,312 | 104 | 96% |
| 2009 | 261 | $195,000 | $256,522 | 125 | 95% |
| 2008 | 205 | $235,000 | $287,787 | 128 | 94% |
| 2007 | 206 | $299,900 | $403,925 | 126 | 95% |
| 2006 | 291 | $320,000 | $393,253 | 85 | 96% |
| 2005 | 537 | $295,000 | $365,214 | 54 | 98% |
| 2004 | 540 | $245,000 | $288,801 | 64 | 98% |
| 2003 | 451 | $194,000 | $234,457 | 62 | 97% |
Third quarter comparisons – Sales were down 16% from 2009, but up 7% from 2008. The median and average prices are each up 3% and 8% respectively from 2009, while compared to 2008 – down 15% and 4% respectively.
Year to Date Comparison (1/1 – 9/30)
| Year | # of Homes Sold | Median Sales Price | Average Sales Price | Days on Market | List Price to Sales Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 619 | $195,000 | $255,311 | 115 | 96% |
| 2009 | 628 | $207,250 | $272,432 | 128 | 95% |
| 2008 | 498 | $253,000 | $328,210 | 131 | 94% |
| 2007 | 615 | $315,000 | $415,163 | 122 | 96% |
| 2006 | 877 | $319,000 | $393,837 | 78 | 97% |
| 2005 | 1337 | $280,000 | $350,770 | 68 | 98% |
| 2004 | 1393 | $227,500 | $269,826 | 77 | 98% |
| 2003 | 1172 | $184,950 | $223,165 | 55 | 98% |
Year-to-Date comparisons – Sales dropped behind the 2009 numbers for the first time all year, down by 9 sales. Compared to 2008 however, sales are up 24%. The median and average prices are down 6% a piece from 2009, while compared to 2008 – down 23% and 22% respectively. Today’s prices are still in the 03/04 range.
If you’re asking about the market, be sure to know what you are asking about. People are always wondering how the real estate market in Big Bear is doing. And my answer is always, “It depends.” Currently, sales are okay but slow, and prices are still down from the peak.
Compare 2010 to 2003. If someone asked how the market was in 2003, most people would say, “great,” as sales were up. But, prices were lower then than they are today. And today most agents say, “not great,” as sales are much lower even though prices are now higher than 2003 levels. Guess it depends on what you are asking about, sales or prices? I think most people are just concerned about prices.
Til next month,
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* Note: The charts above are updated on a monthly basis. They represent single family home sales in the Big Bear area, including Big Bear Lake, Big Bear City, Moonridge, Fox Farm, Sugarloaf, Erwin Lake, & Fawnskin. Data courtesy of the Big Bear MLS. These numbers do not include raw land or condos nor does it include homes in the Big Bear MLS that are located out of the Big Bear area or home sales not listed in the Big Bear MLS.
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Big Bear Home Sales – August 2010
Big Bear Home Sales – July 2010
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