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When Will Prices Go Up in Big Bear?

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This is a question I get on a daily basis.

Prices are directly tied to sales and demand. The more sales (demand) we see, the higher prices should go. We’ve been averaging 50-90 sales the past 2 years or so. Compare that to the 200 per month we used to see back in the early to mid 2000’s and you’ll see demand is still pretty limited right now.

Once we see a sustained amount of sales per month, in the range of 150 per month for a 6-12 month period, then we should start to see an increase in prices.  Keep in mind, we won’t automatically see prices go up.  Just like it took a year or so after sales dropped to see the prices drop, the same will be true for prices going up.

One other important stat to keep an eye on is the inventory for sale – the lower that number, the more demand it creates for those that are for sale.

So, the real question is not, “when will prices go up?”  Rather, “when will demand pick up?”

Most experts are saying at least 1-3 years for that.  With the large amount of shadow inventory out there, inventory is expected to remain pretty level or elevated at least the next couple years so that won’t help.  Couple that with the tighter lending standards and you’ve got a recipe for limited demand.  As with everything, time will tell so stay tuned.

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